Karjakin-Carlsen match #9: analysis of 39. Qb3

IMG_4352.JPGAt 38….with several minutes of time left Carlsen dropped his Nd5 to Ne7, although 38…Bd8 was probably an easy drawing line.

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At 39. Karjakin spent 26.5 minutes to not play 39. Qb3.  But what if he had done so?IMG_4353.JPGThe following, according to Stockfish–at 25 moves depth of analysis–gives us the picture:

IMG_4354.JPG39….Nf5.

……………….

IMG_4355.JPG40. Bf7+.

IMG_4356.JPG40….Kg7, best try to save the draw, and reaching time control too.

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IMG_4357.JPG41. Rh3.

IMG_4358.JPG41….Qe7 looks slow but has most merit.

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IMG_4359.jpg42. Bg8.

IMG_4363.JPG42….h5.

………………………….IMG_4364.JPG43. d5.

………………………………….

IMG_4372.JPG

update:  if 43…Be5? (shown above), then  44. Be6! …Nd4, 45. Qe3! +-.

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Stockfish at depth 25 gives:  43….Nd4 (-1.55), 44. Qb2 (1.62)  …Ra4 (-1.56), 45. Be6 (1.44) …Be5, 46. f4 (1.81) …Bf6, 47. Qb6  …Qa7 (-1.83), 48. Qa7  …Ra7, 49. Bc8  …Ra2, 50. Rd3  …Rc2 (-1.86), 51. Bd7 (1.86)  …Ne2, 52. f5 (1.96) …Rc4, 53. fg6  …Kg6 (-2.01), 54. Be8+  ..Kf5, 55. d6   …Nf4+, 56. Bf4  …Rf4, 57. d7 …Rg4+, 58. Kf1 …Bd8, 59. Bh5  …Rh4 (-2.96).       Evaluations in parentheses.   So one can  evaluate that the whole 39. Qb3 line is very strong for white.IMG_4367.JPG                    after 43…..Nd4, 44. Qb2.     Stockfish at 25 depth says this wins by and by.       -r.

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